The story in this morning's Star has jumped the gun a bit with Cat.3 (forecast to be a 4) Huricane Jimena. The storm this morning is well south of Cabo Correntes and is forecast by NHC to approach Baja tomorrow night. The NHC cautions however that there is a wide spread in the model guidance for this storm, with the GFDL being east of the forecast track shown above and the ECMWF being well off to the west. So, a careful watch is needed.
This morning: the 500 mb high is shifting eastward; middle-level moisture and PWs are increasing slowly; we may have a sliver of CAPE at low-levels but the bad RRS data make it hard to know; there should be increasing CAPE over higher elevations and to the south; and middle-level temperatures remain quite cool. Thus, look for an upturn in activity starting today and continuing through the week.
The disturbance in the GoC is quite pronounced this morning and it should pull northward as Jimena moves to the northwest. Still expecting a serious influx of low-level moisture by tomorrow morning. This occurs as pressures fall on this side of border (most low-elevation stations down almost 2 to 3 mb during last 24-hours) and the GoC disturbance shifts northward.
First week of September will be very interesting - a nice change.
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