It's a very nice and dry morning here in Tucson; 6am temperature at house is a pleasant 66F. Appears that the western tail of the 500 mb trough moving along the U.S. - Canadian border will dig south along the west coast and be sheared off from the main trough. This leaves a cutoff in the baroclinic westerlies influencing the Southwest for most of this coming week (see the GFS 120 hour forecast above). This feature interacts with the rebuilding ridge and several inverted troughs that the model forecasts will be moving around the western periphery of the anticyclone. So it appears that moisture and storms will move back northward, under the influence of both westerly and subtropical features, sometime during the next several days.
The digging 500 mb trough over the Great Lakes will both affect the Tropical Storms in the Atlantic and also push the subtropical high back to the west. It should be a week with lots of interesting changes.
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