From the NWS this morning:AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
846 AM MST SAT AUG 29 2009
DISCUSSION...THE UNMODIFIED KTWC SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 1.03
INCHES...A LIFTED INDEX OF MINUS 6 AND A CAPE OF AROUND 1800 J/KG. ...
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The morning Tucson sounding is shown above - it had about 0.4" of precipitable water but the GPS PW indicated that it actually had about 0.6". No lifted parcel in the sounding had the character described above. So, I assume that something went awry - perhaps an examination of a different sounding?
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Chuck Doswell comments:
I think I'd argue that it's not YOU who is confused! You're being very generous, as usual. One wonders how this sort of erroneous diagnosis could have been done, of course. Unfortunately, the diverse tools (some of which are amazingly poor at what they purport to do) at a forecaster's disposal in today's offices makes it difficult to track down.
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