Sunday, June 14, 2015

Carlos May Exit Stage Right

Carlos is a minimal hurricane this morning, as it sits nearly stationary over cool, upwelling water. Models have been trending toward keeping Carlos and remnants more to south than did earlier forecasts. Visible image of the storm, above, is from 1315 UTC, while water vapor image below is from 1330 UTC. The water vapor image indicates moisture in upper-half of troposphere resides to large degree south of 20 degrees north. However, low-level moist air extends into south end of GoC, and there is even a pocket of low-level moisture sitting out west over the lower Colorado River Basin.

The latest forecast for Carlos from NHC, bottom, takes the storm onshore over western Mexico and indicates decay over Mexico south of 25 degrees north.

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