Monday, June 15, 2015

June Living Up To Its Reputation

It was a beautiful early morning today; perfect for walking along the Rillito. Because of the heat, there were surprisingly many folks out doing their things at 5:30 am MST. By 2:00 pm though it will be mostly the domain of lizards down there along the Rillito. Skies are completely clear and the air is fairly clean as per web cam views of the Catalinas (above at 6:00 am) and of Baboquivari south of Kitt peak (below at a bit after 7:30 am).

A summer synoptic pattern has quickly set up, as we have had three days now at 100 F and higher heat. The 168-hour GFS spaghetti chart below (valid at 5:00 pm MST on June 21st)  illustrates this. The forecast indicates 500 mb heights building to over 5940 m during the late part of the week. Questions for the week ahead:

When will high temperature at airport reach or exceed 110 F?

How long will the streak of 100+ F days extend to?

Will any moisture or clouds sneak in from the east to south?

Carlos remains a difficult storm for forecasters and the ECMWF hints at Carlos remnants sneaking into northern Mexico toward the end of the week. A tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico is heading for Texas - so features of interest just off the horizons.

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