Sunday, June 07, 2015

Situation On Sunday Morning, June 7th

Hurricane Blanca is now north of 20 degrees N, weakening, and moving toward central Baja. The IR image above is from 6:30 am MST this morning. The MIMIC blended PW analysis (below, from CIMSS at University of Wisconsin) indicates that PW values of 2 inches or more have reached over half way up the GoC. Although PW is currently low in southern Arizona (0.82" here at Tucson and 0.75" at Organ Pipe NM), moisture will begin increasing this evening and reach levels by tomorrow afternoon that will be about double the present values.

The GFS and NAM models continue to forecast markedly different scenarios for Blanca's impacts on southern Arizona - the GFS version of the WRF model brings precipitation into Pima County tomorrow afternoon. The composite radar forecast (above, from the 06 UTC model run) indicates thunderstorms in Santa Cruz and eastern Pima County by 6:00 pm MST tomorrow.

To illustrate the difference between the model forecasts for tomorrow, I show the WRF-GFS precipitation through 6:00 am on Tuesday morning just below, and the same forecast from the WRF-NAM, second below. The WRF-NAM does forecast precipitation occurring in a south-to-north band extending northward from Santa Cruz and Cochise County, but later on Tuesday and through the night into Wednesday morning.

So, very different possible outcomes; hopefully, we'll get a better event here in eastern Pima County than that forecast by the WRF NAM, although all of this is quite amazing for the first week and a half in June.

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