Friday, June 12, 2015

Tropical Storm Carlos

A quick update on TS Carlos, which is nearly stationary off the coast of southern Mexico. Visible image of the storm above is from 7:15 am MST.  The graphic below (from the JTWC) shows both the track of the disturbance that became Carlos and also the forecast track of the storm/possible hurricane. The long-term models, and the NHC forecast Carlos to head for Baja, much as Blanca did.

Finally, just for kicks, I show a long-term forecast from the WRF-GFS run at Atmo from 00 UTC last evening. The forecast below is on the 5.4 grid and is valid at 5:00 pm MST a week from today - Friday, June 19th. The forecast shows 850 mb winds and Td (greens range from Tds of 8 to 16 C). In this forecast Carlos sits along the Pacific coast of Baja, but with a significant northward push of moisture extending into parts of Arizona. Could such a thing happen for the third time this June? - we'll wait and watch.

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