Tuesday, June 02, 2015

More On Andres And Blanca

This morning at 2:00 am MST the NHC forecast track for Andres was as per above. Andres was rated a Cat. 2 storm and is now forecast to weaken quickly and move little, just inching north of 20 degrees N.

The satellite perspective of the eastern Pacific is shown above in an IR image for 11 UTC (4:00 am MST). Some middle and upper cloudiness from the vicinity of Andres extends over the southern GoC. The current NHC forecast for TS Blanca is shown below. the NHC anticipates Blanca to move little until tomorrow night, when it is then forecast rapidly north-northwestward toward the southern end of Baja. The GFS and ECMWF forecasts are now similar, with a 500 mb low forecast to stagnate along the California coast while Blanca and remnants of Andres are pulled north toward the midlatitude feature. The GFS is more aggressive in bringing Blanca further north toward Arizona. While such settings occur sometimes later in the summer, this forecast evolution between the tropics and midlatitudes seems very early and quite unusual - see first post on May 31st below.

The MIMIC PW analysis from CIMSS at University of Wisconsin is shown above for 09 UTC this morning - the high PW and circulations of both storms are easily seen, as well as a third disturbance back to east at about 90 degrees W. A close up view of blended PW over the Southwest is shown below - for same time but from CIRA at Colorado State. Values of PW of an inch or more have crept northward up the GoC and now reach to the middle of the Gulf.

Finally, the 00 UTC forecast from the WRF-NAM at Atmo last evening extends far enough out in time to show the early interactions between the cyclone along the California coast and the remnants of Andres. The forecast below is of 700 mb RH and is on the 5.4 km grid, valid at 5:00 am MST on Friday morning. Even though low-level winds are northerly west of Baja, the 700 mb flow is strongly advecting moisture from vicinity of old Andres northward across most of Arizona - at least in the forecast.

This first week of June will certainly play out with more weather interest than is typical - usual weather question this time of year being - "How hot will it be today?"

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