Wednesday, June 17, 2015

Storm Activity Shifts Eastward Next Few Days

First an update on Carlos, which is now a rapidly weakening tropical storm to the south of Cabo Corrientes. The IR image above is from 1230 UTC this morning. The latest forecast from NHC (below) indicates that Carlos will dissipate far south of the mouth of the GoC within 48-hours.

The PW analysis above (from CIRA for 11 UTC) shows PW continues elevated across southern Arizona, with very high values extending about halfway up the GoC. Carlos remnant moisture will likely keep low-level values high to the south of the border. However, as the middle-level anticyclone strengthens to our west, subsidence dominates over Arizona through the weekend. The accumulated precipitation forecast below (from the 00 UTC run of the WRF-GFS) is valid through noon on Monday, June 22nd. Looks like mostly we will have to deal with the heat continuing, with afternoon highs around 110 F.

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