Friday, June 26, 2015

Play It Again Sam

The 500 mb anticyclone is centered over southwestern Utah this morning with heights greater than 5950 m - above analysis from NCAR RAL at 12 UTC this morning. Extreme heat for June for the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest. The 500 mb winds have increased some over southern Arizona as the anticyclone strengthened, so steering winds may be better today.

The morning sounding at TWC (below from Univ. of Wyoming Upper-Air page) is similar to yesterday's, but with the stronger east winds from 700 to 350 mb. Looks like the sounding will heat up about like yesterday's, so that convective cloud bases will be around 600 mb again. Some CAPE over lower elevations again also. So, storms with winds, dust, and light rains in spots again on tap, although potential for stronger gusts may be up today because of faster moving storms. There are some light showers moving westward off to the southwest of the metro area this morning, but looks like there'll be abundant sunshine as the debris clouds move off toward the lower Colorado River Basin.

The WRF-GFS forecasts rainfall through midnight tonight (below, from 06 UTC run) to be somewhat similar to what occurred yesterday. The main difference between the GFS and NAM versions of the 06 UTC forecasts are that the GFS forecasts storms locally to occur later in the evening than does the NAM version. Both versions forecast several outflows affecting eastern Pima County, from several different directions, during the afternoon and evening.

No comments:

Post a Comment