A brief post this morning (Saturday July 23, 2011). The anticipated GoC surge arrived in Yuma around 10 pm last evening - see previous posts re Dora and the associated surge. Dewpoints jumped in Tucson early in the evening, as outflows (no storms or rain) moved across the area from the south.
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This morning's Tucson sounding is very moist, with moderate CAPE, and a reasonable shear profile to support propagating storms into lower elevations. The cooling from last evening's outflow appears to have been shallow and not too great. There is much cloudiness around and to the south, so amount of solar heating may end up a bit restricted. But overall, an excellent day for significant storms with heavy rains and some severe winds moving into low, desert elevations. Situation through Monday will evolve day-to-day and be heavily dependent on what happened previous day, as well as the changing vertical wind profile. A very interesting weekend on tap!
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