Have been away for much of day and will be out of town tomorrow, thus, only a quick look at several things. Tucson sounding this morning very chopped up with drying below 600 mb, L/V winds upper and lower levels, and southerly steering flow middle levels. Only slight bit of CAPE at low elevations this afternoon. PW slowly trending downward, as it appears some dry air has snuck up from the Mexican data voids. Looks quite suppressed, relative to last several days, in much of south central Arizona this afternoon.
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Last evening's Tucson sounding certainly didn't look like it would support severe thunderstorms (below) within an hour and a few miles. However, wrt to GPS data, the sounding was about a cm short on PW, which certainly impacts the character of the sounding and computed storm parameters.
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TS Calvin (below) has been upgraded to a minimal hurricane by the NHC this afternoon. The hurricane is forecast (bottom) to weaken rapidlyand to move essentially westward, staying too far south to have impacts in southeastern Arizona.
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