Quick Look At Conditions This Afternoon

Above is 2315 UTC (4:15 pm MST) visible satellite image showing cumulus fields and a few Cbs over southwest New Mexico and southeast Arizona. A visible loop indicates that these clouds are both developing and/or moving westward - muc as indicated by the morning WRF-GFS forecast.

The 2300 UTC surface plot from NCAR RAP shows strong east-southeast winds over New Mexico and southwesst Texas, along with a strong moisture gradient from southeast Arizona into the Big Bend country of Texas.

The three GPS PW time series above are for: El Paso, Douglas, and U of A. PW at El Paso has been gradually increasing since yesterday. Douglas dried some this morning, but PW there is again on the rise. U of A PW, however, decreased substantially yesterday afternoon and has remained around 7/10s of an inch this afternoon.

Finally, of interest will be whether substantial MCSs develop southwestward this evening from the current small MCS over the Mogollon Mountains in New Mexico (see IR image from 2330 UTC above). Large MCSs could produce quite strong nighttime/early morning outflows that would affect the Tucson area.