The inverted trough that was once associated with Arlene seems nearly stationary over the GoC, but is also stringing vorticity maxima north around the backside of the 500 mb anticyclone. The strongest of these is over southern California this morning. The 1500 UTC visible satellite image (above) shows the cloud mass associated with the GoC surge has reached north past Salt Lake City!
Over southern Arizona this morning it has cooled somewhat and surface pressures are up. However, PW is VERY high, with values at Tucson of about 44 mm, Phoenix has 49 mm, and out around the lower Colorado River Basin values are 50 mm and higher. The Tucson and Phoenix morning soundings are shown above. Low-level winds are now from the northwest and steering winds are southeasterly at 15 to 20 kts. Soundings now have a distinct tropical character to them. Primary threat has has evolved to be heavy rains, with the possibility of associated wet macrobursts. The U of A WRF model contines to keep the heaviest storms to the south and west of Tucson, where elevations are a bit higher. Although drier air remains to the east, the WRF forecast indicates low-level flow continuing from the northwest, advecting slightly more moist air toward Tucson this afternoon. Interesting weekend continues, just not quite as I'd expected. Today, the chances for rainfall here at the house have increased substantially - say something like 70 to 80%.
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Have a great Fourth of July!
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