Tropical storm Dora (IR image at top) is currently near 96W and 112W, moving toward the west-northwest. The storm is forecast to become a hurricane and to pass north of 20N next Friday night (current NHC track forecast just above).
This track would take the storm through the region that is very favorable wrt the triggering of a GoC surge of moisture - see blue shaded box above. When a tropical storm moves through this region, with a northerly to westerly track, a significant surge is almost certain. If the storm has an easterly component of motion, the situation is much more complicated, since pressure falls occur over the southern GoC. Regardless, right now it appears that Dora is headed along a favorable track for having a significant impact on southern Arizona weather next weekend. Of course, that's a long way away, and we'll watch to see how the NHC forecast plays out.
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