Tropical Storm Don formed last night near the coast of Yucatan. This late afternoon (see IR image above), the storm is in the southern Gulf of Mexico, just north of Yucatan. Don is forecast to move northwestward (considerably to the left of the NAM forecast track) and be a remnant somewhere over Texas by Saturday afternoon (see NHC forecast below).
At this time it is too early to tell if Don will have any impacts on southern Arizona weather. However, the NAM forecasts development of a well-defined, upper-tropospheric cyclone ahead of Don. The 72-hour, 200 mb forecast valid Saturday morning (see graphic below) indicates this feature will be near El Paso and that it will clearly be influencing the upper-level flow over Arizona during the weekend - assuming of course that the model forecast is capturing this feature accurately.
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