Continued Quiet

Yesterday was very suppressed across eastern Pima County, with the only storms occurring off to the east and south, as indicated by the early WRF-GFS forecast at Atmo. None of the 93 ALERT network gauges measued any rainfall.

This morning's (Wednesday July 27th) Tucson sounding is even more stable than yesterday's - with essentially no CAPE indicated by the various SPC diagnostics. The eary run of the Atmo WRF-GFS forecasts a very suppressed day over southeast Arizona. Graphic below shows model forecast of total precipitation through midnight tonight. Expect a day of heating and development of a deeper boundary layer. The model forecasts a distinct uptick in storm activity tomorrow, as CAPE develops due to heating and some increase in PW.