After a lot of sweaty work cleaning up mess in the yard (not done yet), I've just taken a look at today's weather data. The U of A WRF and the NAM models all agree that there's somewhat of a replay on tap for
the Tucson area today. I note that the 500 mb level has very cool air overhead and upstream today which is quite favorable. Steering-level winds are more easterly, which is not as good, particularly here at the house. The anvil level winds are from an unusual direction - north or slightly west of north. Good recovery heating going on with temps nearly the same as yesterday. There is already a strong storm on west end of Catalins (see 2100 UTC visible image and radar composite for KEMX above). The Catalinas storm has an anvil that's coming almost overhead - not good. But considerable development to the east, and the Rincons have new build ups. Strong storms to south as per last several days - a strong cell has been propagating northward up the Santa Ritas to the right of the steering flow. Regardless, looks like a lot of interesting storms rest of day.
Time series above for Nogales shows great persistence, with heavy storms for 3 days right around 2 pm each afternoon. Note that the current tempertaure down there is below 70F, and that there's another strong outflow coming up the Santa Cruz River valley.
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Finally, if the NAM has the large-scale winds forecast correctly, the vertical wind profile tomorrow will much less favorable for storms right in the Tucson area. Flow is forecast to be nearly unidirectional from the east, with stronger winds up at anvil level - this brings anvil cloud from mountain storms directly overhead.
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