Have to go to an appointment, so only the briefest look at today. The TWC morning sounding (above) indicates L/V winds through the depth of troposphere. This means that forcing will be due to heating over the mountains, and then small scales will determine the evolution after initial storms. The sounding indicates PW above 40 mm with BL still reaching to 700 mb. There appears to be considerably more CAPE available today at all elevations. It looks like an excellent moist microburst sounding - so, winds and R+ a threat for where storms develop. Will they propagate into lower elevations? The Atmo WRF indicates a down day at low elevations, keeping rainfall down in the borderlands - the NAM appears somewhat similar. With better CAPE, but almost no winds, this afternoon and evening appears to be a wild card,perhaps better than the models indicate. Note that there may have been problems with the WRF run, and that there is heavy morning cloud cover, which will delay heating. Tough forecast today.
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