Large MCS (0600 UTC IR image above) last night over southwest Texas - unusually far south for this time of year. Mike Leuthold pointed out that an MCS from the Mogollon and White Mountains propagated westward to near the eastern edge of Pima County, after dark last eveing. See 0445 UTC IR below which captures three MCSs - two over Texas and one over New Mexico and Arizona.
Yesterday there was considerably diminished storm activity in southeast Arizona that was mostly confined to some of the higher mountains. There was heavy anvil cloud here at house but no thunder or rain. Only 20% of the ALERT sites had rain in past 24-hours, and these were mostly in the Catalinas and far to the southwest of the network. Three sites had more than half an inch and one site had just over an inch of rain.
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This morning there was heavy cloud cover at sunrise with a few showers drfiting around. The above 1445 UTC visible image shows some brighter cloud tops associated with light showers north of the Catalinas. Moisture remains high across southeast Arizona, with some drying occurring out in southwest Arizona.
Tucson's 1200 UTC sounding today (Friday August 12th) is similar to that of the last several days. It appears that CAPE is down some, but 10 to 15 kt winds are now present from 700 to 500 mb. Thus, some slight steering level winds. The NAM forecast this morning holds some hope, since it forecasts slightly stronger 500 mb winds this evening and tomorrow. Yesterday's WRF-GFS was forecasting storms moving toward Tucson from the mountains to the northeast by evening today. It appears that the early run of WRF-GFS today had problems. At best, we may have better conditions for storms next couple of days (we'll need the clouds to break today), but the long range forecasts hint at a possible dry out early next week.
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