Has been quite suppressed today (Sunday, August 14th) relative to yesterday. There have been isolated storms on the mountains and that's about it. Only 1 of the 93 ALERT sites had rainfall during the past 6 hours. The above image at 6 pm MST today shows a small, isolated shower over the west end of the Catalinas - gone within 10 minutes or so.
However, down in Mexico a very intense MCS has been moving northward up the east side of the GoC - above is 6:30 pm MST IR image of the system. The NAM model has indicated a fairly pronounced 500 mb IT with this system. The bulk of the IT is forecast by the model to move westward over the Pacific. However, the model forecasts a vorticity maxima from the IT to move northward tonight over southeast Arizona. So there may be a new MCS develop north of the current one, and even though there is little or no CAPE available at low elevations in the Tucson area, midlevel instability and clouds could bring some rain late tonight along with outflows from Mexico - will have to watch to the south. The MCS has also been substantial enough to force mT northward again, and Yuma's dewpoint is likely to surge upward again tonight.
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