Above is the TUS sounding from 0000 UTC last evening. Very bad (?) sounding with a severe superadiabatic lapse rate around 600 mb. Since there seems to be no dry layer involved, the sounding can perhaps be explained by horizontal displacement of the sonde from an updraft to the near environment. What is bizarre is that the forecast sounding from the WRF-GFS I posted yesterday looks strangely like the actual, verifying sounding. Can it be that the WRF has become so good that it can forecast such strange things?
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