The IR image above (1330z this morning) indicates that TS Eugene is approaching 130 W and remains just south of 20 N. Over northern Sonora there are remnant cloud from a large overnight MCS. Middle and high cloud were just over Tucson at sunrise, and extended off to east and south.There were thundershowers on the mountains yesterday, with few able to move to lower elevations - as per yesterday's WRF-GFS forecast. In the Pima County ALERT network 13 sites - in the Catalinas and far to the south - had rainfall. Two sites measured more than inch - Mt. Lemmon and Tubac.
The morning Tucson sounding (above from SPC) shows that we remain becalmed in an atmospheric col with light and variable winds below 300 mb. The lack of any persistent advection continues to allow moisture to remain trapped over southeast Arizona - PW values are around 1.5 inches from Sells eastward, while values at Phoenix and Yuma have slipped below an inch. There continues to be a sliver of afternoon CAPE likely over low elevations, with the mountains as usual being more unstable.
The early morning run of the U of A Atmo WRF-GFS model forecasts convection restricted to the eastern mountains and the borderlands - radar composite forecast valid at 4 pm this afternoon is shown above. The forecast thundrshowers for this afternoon are the most that the model forecasts through Monday afternoon. The model does forecast that a large MCS will try to move over the northern GoC this evening - if this happens, it should trigger at least a shallow surge of moisture back into southwest Arizona. Otherwise, the model forecasts indicate that most of the interesting weather will tend to be confined to Sonora into early next week.
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