The 500 mb analysis for 1200 UTC this morning (above from NCAR) shows that a large and amorphous anticyclone continues to dominate most of the U.S. There continue to be two weak circulation centers in the west part of the anticyclone - one southwest of Tucson and one south of El Paso (with the dominant center far to the east near Memphis). The result is that light westerly winds prevail at 500 mb across Arizona and New Mexico.
The Tucson 1200 UTC sounding (above from SPC) continues to have L/V winds below 300 mb and about 1.5" of PW (note the strongly superadiabatic layer due to wetbulbing). It is drier to the west, with PW at Yuma and Organ Pipe having dropped below an inch. Today's BL in the southeast part of state will build to near 700 mb, with a decent amount of CAPE above a small layer with CIN. Storms most likely on mountains, with perhaps enough outflow to kick off isolated storms at low elevations.
This is essentially what the NAM forecasts (above is NAM forecast of precipitation through midnight tonight). The early Atmo run of the GFS-WRF forecasts much more isolated activity over southeast Arizona, as it brings in a substantial encroachment of the drier air from the west. Regardless, more sunshine, a better BL, and perhaps an upturn after the suppression of yesterday. Will keep an eye on the GPS time-trends of PW tis afternoon.
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