It was a very suppressed day yesterday, with one isolated storm (above at 4:40 pm MST) developing over the east end of the Catalinas. Plot of detected CG flashes for 24 hours ending at 0733 UTC (below from Atmo and Vaisala) shows that this storm produced a small region of CG flashes in the extreme northeast corner off Pima County.
Morning 500 mb analysis (above from SPC) shows that 500 mb anticyclone center has shifted to northwest Texas. There is a bit of interplay between the anticyclone and a very weak trough over western Arizona. The 12 UTC TWC/TUS sounding (below) continues to have light and variable winds aloft, with only a slight bit of CAPE. Again, any storm development should favor the higher elevations.
The 09 UTC WRF-RR forecast from Atmo (above - valid through noon on the 21st (Friday) keeps us in a dry regime. The NWS continues to be more optimistic, with 20-30 percent POPS at the airport through Friday (below).
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