Winds But No Rain

Morning view of Catainas at about 5:30 am MST today.

There was considerably reduced CG activity over eastern Pima County yestery (plot of dtected CG flashes above through 0803Z this morning). There was enough lighting nearby to knock out our power for over an hour just after dark. Atmo reported a gust to 40 mph. Note the cluster of flashes out west in La Paz County - this storm over-turned, or jacknifed, about 10 semis on I-10.

Only thirteen reports of rainfall across entire ALERT network during 24 hours ending at 6:30 am. Yesterday's WRF forecast verified quite well - see previous post.

The 12 UTC upper-air sounding for TWC/TUS (above) is still very dry with very deep boundary layer. Considerable low-level cooling, plus just a sliver of CAPE, are again not very favorable for low-elevation storms.

The 12 UTC WRF-RR run (above) forecasts almost nothing for eastern Pima County through 6:00 am tomorrow morning. The morning NWS forecast below continues more agressive than the WRF forecasts. An inverted trough in the easterlies will swing by this weekend, hopefully pushing more low-level moisture into southeast Arizona.