There were a couple of very isolated, light showers in far southeast Arizona yesterday and 0ne scrawny Cb was visible to the southeast of Tucson at sunset. This morning, a backdoor front from the southern Plains has moved into southeast Arizona. Depoints remain around 50 to 60F right along the border. The morning (12Z Sunday September 26th) 500 mb analysis (top) shows that a well-defined, inverted trough is poised to brush westward across southern Arizona today and that 500 mb temperatures have cooled to around -8 to -9C in the deep easterly flow associated with this feature. The morning sounding at Tucson (middle) indicates little CAPE at low elevations. So, with the downslope winds and not much instability, expect at most some isolated buildups along the Borderlands.------------------------------------------------------
The most interesting thing I noticed in my morning look at the weather is indicated in the bottom chart - which is the 84-hour NAM forecast valid Wednesday afternoon at 5 PM MST. The model predicts a strong interaction beteen the 500 mb cutoff, currently over the central US and a tropical disturbance in the western Caribbean. This leads to a tropical storm, or a hybrid baroclinic/TS system, developing rapidly over the Florida Straits and moving north into southern Florida.
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