Very nice morning with a cool low in the upper 50s here at house. The deep mT moisture has been pushed south again to around Guaymas. However, the model forecasts are interesting from Sunday afternoon through Tues-Wed next week. The NAM 500 mb forecast valid 5 pm Sunday afternoon is shown in top panel and the ECMWF four-panel forecast valid 5 pm Tuesday afternoon is shown at bottom. Both models have a substantial inverted trough/closed cyclone moving westward across western Mexico and brushing along the Borderlands. The models are basically dry, but it's hard not to speculate that such a pattern, if it materializes, will bring moisture and showers back north. The pattern is complicated by what would be a significant period of easterly winds with a backdoor front associated with the strong central US system - but, of course, all this too far out to worry about details yet.
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