So far, the big intrusion of mT air from south has not led to much precipitation, except probably in the Rim Country northeast of Phoenix. Here at house we had 0.20" during the night - this turns out to be one of the higher amounts at low elevations in the Tucson metro area. The ALERT network data indicate 32 of 93 stations with rainfall during past 24-hours, or about 34% areal coverage, (9 stations had had rainfall at 5 pm yesterday afternoon). Only one amount was greater than half an inch - Florida Canyon had 1.06" (with 1.02" of that in a downpour yesterday afternoon), which is far and away the highest amount I can find reported in a gauge early this morning. The RAWS observations indicated that 13 of the 15 working stations in southeast Arizona had measurable rainfall yesterday but amounts were light. The RAWS high elevation observations do indicate that, as radar loops tended to show, most afternoon storms yesterday tended to stay on the mountains.-----------------------------------------
The top graphic shows the radar echo forecast from the midnight Atmo WRF-GFS for 6 am this morning, indicating heavy radar echoes east and northeast of Phoenix. The bottom image is Flagstaff radar composite data a bit past 6 am this morning. The radar data indicate that the forecast precipitation area by the WRF was quite good, but that intensity tended to be too high [i.e., the convective component of the rain predicted was too intense, making the WRF-GFS too wet wrt total rainfall amounts (this has been the case recently)].
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