Yesterday was quite suppressed, with only a few brief showers on higher mountains to the east. Most of the RAWS sites in far southeastern Arizona had rainfall but amounts were very light. This morning's visible satellite image (bottom) shows that the low-level clouds and moisture are still hanging in from Tucson east, with the southerly winds ahead of the Pacific trough - too bad we haven't had middle-level temperatures of -8 to -10C the last several days! The PW values at 12Z pretty much tell today's weather story - Tucson 25 mm; Tohono O'odham CC 12 mm; Organ Pipe NM 8 mm; and Phoenix 7 mm. Home football this weekend fits with the start of Fall here. The model forecasts from the ECMWF indicate that the ridge axis of the 500 mb subtropical high will remain to the south of the border through the next week. For what it's worth at such long ranges, the GFS indicates the same story out through 10 days. The last month or so of summer was pretty dismal here at the house - the last time I measured 2/10s of an inch or more rainfall was on August 15th. You can imagine how long one or two tenths lasts in the soil here when the sun comes out - at least a few nanoseconds.
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The top graphic shows 24-hour rainfall ending at 12 UTC yesterday morning (from HPC) - the remnants of TS Hermine did a real number in Texas with some places getting more than a foot of rain and much flooding. Some amounts included: Georgetown had received 13.2 inches of rain; Cedar Park had received 12.9 inches; Anderson Mill, 12.7 inches; Killeen, 11.6 inches; and Austin, 11.4 inches. Fort Worth had recorded 6.8 inches of rain, San Antonio , 6.7 inches and Houston
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