The IR image (top) shows that Georgette is over the south-central GoC this morning and that a large plume of cloudiness extends northward into southwestern Colorado. The morning sounding from Tucson (middle) indicates deep moisture and mostly southerly flow. The sounding has more than an inch and three quarters of precipitable water, but very slight CAPE. Thus, unless we would get some heating (which doesn't appear likely until drier air sweeps in from west), rainfall at low elevations will be dependent mostly upon vertical motion ahead of the Pacfic trough that's approaching. The trough approaches Arizona too quickly to allow Georgette remanants north into the state, and shunts the vorticity maximum of the old TS over toward El Paso by tomorrow morning (bottom panel is 500 mb NAM forecast from this morning for midnight tonight). It appears that forcing for vertical motion and heavy rainfall amounts will continue to focus over the RIM country northeast of Phoenix. The midnight run of the Atmo WRF-GFS does forecast a heavy swath of rainfall to extend from near sasabe north toward Payson - but this is hard to evaluate because of the "too wet" nature of that forecast run.----------------------------------------------------
An aside - the dewpoint temperature roller coaster ride continues out at Yuma. This morning the Td is down by 44F compared to 24-hours ago!
No comments:
Post a Comment