Miscellaneous Ramblings

First a brief summary for July and August. August ended up with only 1.44" of rainfall here at house; so, total for July and August was 4.70". This is the sixth driest total for the two months, since I started my records here in 1999. For perspective - driest July and August was 2.26" in 2004 and wettest July and August was 10.46" in 2008.
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September has started out quite dry - the satellite image at top shows the height of activity yesterday on the afternoon of the 1st. The middle graphic is this morning's (September 2nd) Tucson sounding - indicating dry and hot conditions continuing. The PW (16 mm) is still about 2 mm higher than the GPS value. Of interest for the coming Holiday weekend is that the Guaymas sounding (PW of 56 mm) indicates that mT air lurks close to the south. The morning 500 mb analysis from NCAR RAP (bottom graphic) shows that a large anticyclone with light and choppy winds covers all of the Southwest and northern Mexico.

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Several things to watch this weekend include: a backdoor front from the southern High Plains coming into southeastern Arizona early Friday (edited to correct the day!) morning. A possible tropical system passing off to the far southwest of Baja. Increased MCS activity in Sonora. So, depending on how all of these interact, we could see a brief northward push of the mT air and some thunderstorms - which would be most likely along the Borderlands. We could also be downsloped and dry, due to the backdoor front - so the exact details are a tough call. Then, it appears that the new week will see another strong Pacific trough digging south along the coast. Finally, Hurricane Earl will do a Labor Day weekend brush-by along the northeast coast - tough on the Holiday seashore tourist trade.