Saturday, September 04, 2010

Quick Look At Today - Saturday Sept. 4th, 2010


A quick look at this morning's charts by someone who defintely feels snakebit!
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The Tucson morning sounding (top) has perhaps a bit of CAPE and moisture values are up some across all of southern Arizona. Yuma has experienced at least a shallow surge of mT air since 4 am with the dewpoint rising 28F! The wind profile is actually pretty good, except for the continuing southeasterly winds in low-levels. Temperatures are quite cool in middle-levels.
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The 500 mb analysis from RAP (bottom) shows the large and amorphous high continuing over the Southwest and Mexico. There appear to be two lobes in the anticyclone this morning - one off toward the Four Corners and the other over southern California. There is a distinct, but weak, inverted trough across across northern Mexico and into southern Arizona.
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After yesterday, I'd be hesitant to rule out isolated storms again this afternoon, given a number of favorable aspects noted above. I will certainly be interested in whether or not the variant WRF model runs indicate any chance of storms!



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