Low-level moisture is slowly on the increase over southeastern Arizona, as forecast by yesterday's Atmo runs of the WRF model. The top image shows this morning's Tucson sounding with PW of almost an inch, and perhaps even a tiny bit of CAPE by afternoon. Winds are easterly from the surface to above 500 mb, with some speeds near 20 kt. Thus, a nice vertical wind- shear profile.-----------------------------------------------
The middle graphic is this morning's 500 mb chart from NCAR RAP. Note that the subtropical anticyclone has shifted well to the north, and that there is a very large inverted trough extending south from near El Paso into the Tropics. The NAM model indicates the possiblity of a tropical disturbance spinning up south of Baja during the next 48-hours or so. And the bottom image shows a large area of disturbed weather and thunderstorms off of all of southwestern Mexico.
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The big question over the first half of the new week will be how the Pacific troughiness in the westerlies will phase/interact with events at low latitudes. It appears possible that a low-level surge of mT air will develop by Tuesday-Wednesday, as deeper moisture also increases from the southeast.
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The Sunday morning newspaper forecast banner today, from Jimmy Stewart and KOVA, indicates zero per cent chance of rain for the Tucson area today, Monday and Tuesday. I'll post WRF forecasts in next, showing what a risky (or brave) forecast this is.
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