The large cutoff low at 500 mb that has developed off of southern California (see top water vapor image) has pulled more moist, low-level air into southwestern Arizona and southern California during the past 48-hours. Precipitable water amounts over southwestern Arizona range from around an inch at Tohono O'odham CC to an inch and a half out at Yuma. The San Diego sounding this morning (middle image) indicates some elevated CAPE (although PW is 6 mm too wet when compared to GPS observations). The radar data from Yuma this morning are detecting some rainshowers from around Ajo westward across extreme southern California. So, a bit of weather in the Southwest to keep an eye on. In the longer term the ECMWF is very aggressive in digging a strong trough into Arizona at 6 to 7 days - the ECMWF has been very much more accurate than the NWS GFS model in its predictions of digging troughs along the west coast the last several winters.
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