It is extremely dry and clear over Arizona this morning - see top visible satellite image from this morning. But there is a Pacific trough off to the northwest and a large, subtropical inverted trough (to the far southeast) to the north of what was Hurricane Karl. These two features will clash a bit over southeast Arizona tomorrow afternoon and Monday (September 19th and 20th).----------------------------------------
The Univ. of Arizona, Atmospheric Sciences version of the WRF-GFS model - the run from midnight last night - forecasts increasing dewpoints at 850 mb from the east and east-southeast tomorrow and Monday. The moisture increases enough that the model forecasts some isolated showers tomorrow. The model-forecasted radar reflectivity for 2 pm on Monday (middle panel) indicates scattered showers and a few thunderstorms over much of eastern Arizona as the Pacific trough approaches.
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This morning's NAM forecast run also picks up on this trend and forecasts an area of light rainfall over southeast Arizona for the 12-hours ending at midnight Monday night. The NAM doesn't seem to have as much activity as the WRF forecasts.
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Nothing to write home about, but at least a bit of weather to keep an eye on.
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