Saturday, July 30, 2016

Brief Summary Of Yesterday's Big Severe Storm Day

Katie and I are going out to take a course on making special pamphlets at Panther Peak Bindery this morning - so not much blogging time.

Radar image above was from 8:12 pm last evening. We had severe gusts of about 60 mph a bit earlier and I saw new tree limbs down on my walk this morning. IR satellite images below are from last evening top and bottom for 5:30 am MST this morning. The combined outflow from the two large MCS systems has raced westward all the way across the Mojave in California - very impressive.

The SPC issued watch number 424 for Arizona yesterday afternoon (above) and got most of the reports, although activity developed considerably east of where the 06 UTC WRF forecasts indicated yesterday.

With more than 25 reports, this may have been a rare, Arizona "moderate" outbreak.

Lots of photos online - Mike Olbinski reports yesterday as one of his best three in Arizona. He also reported heading far west on I-8 but that he was unable to keep ahead of the outflows and nasty haboob.

As for precipitation, the 12-hours ending at 5:00 am produced nearly complete coverage across the ALERT network (100% for the high-elevation zone and 95% for the low-elevation/metro zone). There were 32 reports of more than half an inch and 8 sites had more than an inch. The Catalinas sector is shown below. Here at house there was 0.62" in gauge this morning.

The past seven days have illustrated how difficult forecasting POPs is here in Arizona - most 12-hour periods had zero coverage while at least 2 had 100% - verification works out only when averaged for climatological periods.

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