Friday, July 22, 2016

Higher Elevations More Active Yesterday

Considerably more thunderstorm activity yesterday, as per detected CGs above from Atmo and Vaisala. Storms stayed mostly to higher elevations and avoided the metro area, except for one afternoon storm out to the west. Once again less than 20% of the ALERT sites measured rainfall, with amounts light except for 0.67" at Manning Camp in the Rincons.

Time-series of GPS PW from Atmo above, show values decreasing this morning over southeastern Arizona, which may reduce CAPE some for the afternoon. The WRF-NAM forecasts storms again sticking to higher elevations (forecast of composite radar echoes below is valid at 6:00 pm MST this evening).

Two new TSs this morning - NHC named the one closer to Mexico first, so the storm of interest for us is Frank (above). The morning NHC forecast for Frank is shown below. The forecast track is marginal for the storm to generate a strong GoC moisture surge and models seem to be trending further west with Frank's forecasts. So, it will be something to watch, but a more easterly track would definitely be more interesting.

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