Friday, July 15, 2016

Just Back In Town

We had company from Kalamazoo, Michigan, arrive here in Tucson last Sunday evening by train from Chicago. After a couple of days here in Tucson, we all drove up to Winslow, and they caught an eastbound train early Wednesday morning. We drove back this morning and my car thermometer was indicating an outside temperature of 107 F as we drove east along River. Ugh.

Has been very dismal July here at house and the understory up on the Rim appeared very dry also.

I have taken a quick look at the weather charts this afternoon - my first since last Monday morning.  At first glance the situation continues to appear fairly dismal. There seem to be no large mesoscale or synoptic disturbances during next few days that would trigger a significant surge of low-level moisture northward. However, the 19 UTC (2:00 pm MST) analysis of blended PW from CIRA at CSU, shown above, indicates that mT air is not far south of the border. 

The ongoing burst of TS/Hurricane activity in the eastern Pacific is keeping higher PW pushed north up the GoC and western slopes of the Sierra Madre Occidental. An MCS in Mexico tonight, if it's a bit further north than last night's activity, could help push higher low-level moisture  across the border. So there's a bit of hope for a return of storm activity.

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