Friday, July 08, 2016

Slow Drying Out Will Bring More Heat

The 4:00 am MST CIRA analysis of blended PW (above) shows values of around an inch to an inch and a half (greens) holding on in southeast Arizona. The high values of yesterday (around 2 inches - yellows) have retreated southward into Mexico. Dewpoints are down around 10 F and more from Tucson westward.

The TWC morning sounding plot (from NCAR RAL/RAP) above indicates PW at 34.4 mm (1.35"). I have added an estimated, afternoon lifted parcel, which indicates some CAPE above 500 mb, but there is a nasty capping layer of warm and very dry air from about 700 to 500 mb. Not good. The automated algorithm used has computed zero CAPE, but this is for the surface parcel - a useless calculation for the early morning sounding.

The WRF models from 06 UTC continue to forecast some isolated thunderstorms along higher elevations of the Borderlands, as moist, low-level air continues to circulate from Mexico into southeast Arizona, keeping afternoon values around an inch or a bit more. The GFS version below forecasts a few small bursts of precipitation through midnight, but mostly to our south and southwest.

Looks like we can expect hot and dry conditions for about the next week or so, as we wait and hope for another monsoonal pattern to return.

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