Saturday, July 02, 2016

Quick Look At Today

The 12 UTC analysis of PW from CIRA at Colorado State (above) indicates that high values continue over much of Arizona. Very humid out when I walked this morning.

The morning sounding plot for TWC (above) remains moist below 500 mb and has substantial CAPE. The forecast sounding below (from the 06 UTC WRF-GFS) continues to have nearly 1000 J/kg of CAPE, even though PW is down by about 5 mm. The decrease is due to subsidence in middle levels, The forecast problem today involves the battle between large-scale sinking and orographic lift over the Sky Islands.

The WRF forecasts indicate that the large scale predominates, with only some isolated storms over southeast Arizona. The GFS version's forecast of rainfall through midnight tonight is at bottom and is, of course, a big downturn from the last several days. The WRF model forecasts are usually quite good in this type situation; however, a peek at the new 12 UTC forecasts would prudent.

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