Thursday, July 27, 2017

Conflicting Signals This Morning

Thunderstorms and light showers returned to high elevations in the Catalinas yesterday - ALERT data above for 24-hours ending at 7:00 am MST this morning.

The morning sounding (below from SPC) indicates decent CAPE if the BL mixes well to a bit above 700 mb - which would require a high at airport of around 104 F. The wind profile however is not very favorable and would tend to bring anvils over city, keeping the temperature down a bit.

The 06 UTC WRF-GFS from Atmo forecasts just sprinkles for the metro area through midnight (above). The forecast sounding for TWC at mid-afternoon requires some outflow lift to produce thunderstorms. The winds at high-levels increase some and become more easterly, increasing the threat of anvils over the city. However, the surface plot forecast for 5:00 pm this afternoon (below) indicates a strong outflow from southeast moving across city. The model forecasts decent heating until about 2:00 pm before anvils increase over low-elevations. So mixed signals for this afternoon and another wait to see day.

The IR image at bottom is from 07 UTC last night. There was significant thunderstorm activity over the middle and south end of the GoC last night and this may begin pushing extremely moist mT air north again.

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