Sunday, July 30, 2017

Soupy Static Large-Scale Setting Continues

Looking south toward Atmo at 2:30 pm MST yesterday afternoon, where heavy storm storm core struck for second day in a row (as per comment by Stefan, below).

ALERT data for 24-hours ending at 7:00 am this morning above - the report of 1.91" is about where photo at top was looking. While Atmo and TUS had 0.71" and 0.87" respectively, we had thunder but only 0.07" of rain.

ALERT data for past three days below shows the dry area has been here in north-central part of City. The vagaries of storm core rainfall are emphasized when there are no winds aloft. While the airport has had 2.21" of rain the past 2 days, Davis Monthan ASOS reports only 0.13" - less that 5 km apart. Further, the ALERT gauge at Craycroft and Golf links has had over an inch and a half of rain - this gauge being less than a km from the DM ASOS.

Finally, a very severe thunderstorm struck in the Luke AFB area northwest of downtown Phoenix yesterday (Luke had 1.47" of rain with gusts to 56 mp - but one of their nearby mesonet stations measured 83 mph and there was considerably damage in area near the base (PHX was basically skunked again).

Detected CG flashes for 24-hours ending at 7:00 am shown above (with hours ago timeline to left). CGs show the storm cores near Atmo and TUS (from Atmo and Vaisala). The plot of solar radiation from Atmo (below) shows that turned very dark there as the storm cell developed overhead.

More of the same this morning at sunrise - very humid and cloud-covered skies - view above is toward Finger Rock where there was a bit of back-coloring at sunrise,

Out of curiosity I looked at the 06 UTC GEFS plumes for QPF this morning (below) - different member have much different forecasts, as would be expected, but of interest is how much wetter the operational GFS (blue) becomes at the end of the period.

Tropical sounding again at TWC this morning with almost no winds in the troposphere, heavy cloud cover, and almost 2 inches of PW.

Visible satellite image above is from 6:45 am and shows very widespread cloud cover across Arizona (with some showers to our south) this morning. I would certainly expect a down-day today after two big events and extensive cloudiness, and this is what the WRF models forecast from 06 UTC last night (below is precipitation forecast from WRF-GFS through midnight tonight). However, little seems to have gone as expected last week or so, and we'll see what today actually brings.

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