Saturday, July 22, 2017

Reduced Activity Yesterday - Pattern Remains Stagnant

Storm developed along the foothills north of here a bit before 7:00 pm MST (above), but could not come into this part of town. The storm seemed to shift southeastward and dissipate. Here at house we had thunder and a couple of spits of rain.

Plot below is of detected CG flashes for 24-hours ending at 1:00 am today, and shows considerably less activity over eastern Pima County than occurred yesterday (from Atmo and Vaisala).

These two plots show 24-hour precipitation ending at 7:00 am this morning. Basically a metro donut hole, but with storms coming off the Rincons and developing into a line that moved southward away from the City. Plot above is from ALERT network and plot below is from MesoWest.

The 12 UTC 500 mb analysis above is from NCAR and shows several things of interest: western lobe of anticyclone is again over the Great Basin; height gradients over much of western and central U.S. are extremely weak; I count five inverted troughs from Louisiana to southern California; Huge data void remains over all of northern half of Mexico. The troughs are very weak and moving slowly, if at all. Their main role seems to be in determining local steering flows for storms that do develop.

The TWC sounding (below) this morning is little changed from yesterday and thus it looks like another wait and watch day.

I did look briefly at the 06 UTC forecasts from the WRF model run at Atmo. Both versions had a significant area of storms forecast to our northeast around sunrise and so I didn't look further. Perhaps the 12 UTC runs will start off better - check the new runs and Mike"s morning discussion.

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