Monday, July 31, 2017

Down Day For Metro Yesterday

Very limited time this morning, so very brief post.

Yesterday was, as well-forecast by models, a down day for the low elevations and metro Tucson. The CG flash plot above (from Atmo and Vaisala) and the ALERT data below both illustrate this. Storms stayed on Catalinas, south end of Tucson Mountains, and Keystone Peak to the southwest of the city. Two stations up in Catalinas reported over two inches of rain yesterday.

The morning sounding (below) from TWC has dried considerably but remains wet with 1.64" PW and some afternoon CAPE - if boundary layer can heat and mix to around 700 mb. Very light winds continue below 300 mb but strong south winds above. Mountains should be active again today, while there may be anvil shading problems at many lower elevation sites, storm tops and anvils lean toward the north. There will be much more sunshine and heating today over southeastern Arizona. Both 06 UTC WRF forecasts from Atmo indicate increased storm activity but with most rain over higher elevations.

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