Saturday, July 29, 2017

Quick Look At Today

Another nice sunrise along the Rillito, which was flowing robustly this morning.

The 12 UTC 500 mb analysis below (from NCAR) shows that the pattern has frankly just gone to crap. There are numerous, very weak anticyclone centers with troughs between. I see possible anticyclone circulation centers over: eastern Nevada; northeastern Colorado; northeastern Oklahoma; and far southern Texas near the Rio Grande - what a mess. Also note the unusual cold temperature at Tucson of -8 C.

The 12 UTC TWC sounding plot (above) continues very moist and indicates some CAPE, centered around that cold, in-cloud 500 temperature. The 06 UTC WRF-GFS forecast sounding for TWC (below) is valid at 4:00 pm MST. Wind profile is chopped up and perhaps with speeds a bit high? The 500 temperature has warmed to -5 C and there is little CAPE.

So it's very hard to tell if there will much activity in eastern Pima County at low elevations. Will take a lot of things coming together to move storms far off the mountains.

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