Wednesday, July 05, 2017

Hot And Dry Continues

Another nice sunrise today with considerable debris cloudiness drifting around. - above. Below is a quick hand-analysis of the 500 mb level at 12 UTC this morning. The anticyclone is consolidating over the Great Basin, as the hostile (for local thunderstorms) synoptic setting continues. Heavy black dashes show weak trough separating the overland high from the west end of the Atlantic subtropical high. Green hatching shows area where T/Td spreads are 6 C or less.

Suppressed conditions continued over most of the West yesterday - above is 24-hour CG flash density ending at 07:15 am MST this morning. Intense lightning activity occurred in the Red River area of southern Oklahoma, where flash flood warnings have been issued. The hostile ridge position is keeping East Pacific tropical storm activity trapped south of 20 degrees north. Looks like the next week leaves our area dependent up mesoscale outflows in/from northern Mexico for increased moisture and CAPE.


  1. Anonymous12:36 PM

    Gulf surge Tuesday to kick off the monsoon...


  2. Maybe sooner than that Pat. WRF has one on the 8th. Also, Bob, there is a disturbing lack of 12Z upper air data in NW Mexico. I know I did see Empalme earlier in the summer. Chihuahua seems to be only present at 0Z.

  3. Anonymous8:24 PM

    Its a WAG...looked at 18z models and even though it surges models don't put much precipitation in until Sunday Monday.