Thursday, July 20, 2017

Uncertain Day Today - Downburst Near University Yesterday

Edited to add: Art Rangno reported 3.36 inches of rain yesterday at his place in Catalina. His approximate location is shown in map below.

Plot above shows detected CG flashes for past 24-hours ending at 6:00 am MST - from Atmo and Vaisala. Cluster of green flashes Tucson area was with the down burst storm that hit university area a bit before my afternoon post yesterday. Note the time bar that indicates the mid-afternoon storms were all that impacted metro area. Widespread rains with heaviest near downtown and in the Catalinas ALERT below is for 24-hours ending at 7:00 am. Quite a few reports of trees down with this storm - reports for yesterday from SPC is second below.

The upper-level IT that was near El Paso yesterday has elongated northwestward and is being pulled apart as it circles around the central US anticyclone - water vapor image above from 5:15 am this morning.

The morning TWC sounding (above) remains wet and unstable, particularly for the mountains. However, winds through the troposphere are essentially light and variable. Mountain storms may drift anywhere - following outflows and most unstable air. Widespread debris cloudiness over Arizona and northern Mexico at 6:45 am (visible image below) means uncertain heating. This seems to be a day where we just sit and watch what evolves.

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