Monday, July 24, 2017

Models Forecast Continuing Downturn In Storm Activity

Although I meant to post a daily outlook yesterday, I was delayed by trimming trees for special pick-up today and then by the amazing final 9 holes of the British Open. So, I never got around to it.

Detected CG flashes above (from Atmo and Vaisala) show an expected donut hole over the metro area after such a large event the day before, as well as a definite decrease in thunderstorm activity across southeastern Arizona.

Was very dreary day here with overcast skies, a few rumbles of thunder from the Catalina Foothills, and occasional spits and light showers of rain - total for day and night here was 0.08".

The ALERT plot below is for 24-hours ending at 7:30 am MST - another 100% areal coverage day but with low elevation amounts quite light. Four mountain sites had another day with over an inch of rain.

The amazingly moist pool of PW over southern Arizona (as per 12 UTC TWC sounding plot above) is forecast to shift northward as winds continue more southerly. Although low-levels remain quite moist, the WRF-GFS from 06 UTC last night indicates a serious downturn in storm activity across southern Arizona next several days - I assume that this is mostly due to the very warm (hot) middle-level temperatures. The visible satellite image below is from 7:00 am - storms to our northwest underway, but with a large region of Sonora being clear and presumable drier. Some sunshine would be nice after several mostly cloudy days.

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