Wednesday, July 26, 2017

Downturn Miscellany

Little to report this morning. Closest storm and rainfall activity moved from Sonora up over the Huachucas early evening and have hung around the mountains all night. Totally down across Pima County.

The 13 UTC MIMIC total PW (above) shows PW holding around 1.5" across southern Arizona while very high values reach north to around Guaymas and Hermosillo. Hurricane Hilary is at about 16N, south of Baja. 

The Rillito at Dodge USGS stream-flow gauge (below) showed three distinct peaks during the past week, with one on Thursday evening nearly reaching 5,000 cfs. 

The morning NHC forecast for Hilary is shown above and keeps the storm far west of south tip of Baja. However, the operational version of the GFS turns the storm northward. This is indicated in the 00 UTC WRF-GFS forecast of 850 mb winds and PW below. Compare the forecast locations of the storm for next Monday morning (the 31st).

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